Tahoe-Truckee Real Estate Update 4/4/2020

How’s the Tahoe-Truckee Market?

 

The goal of this page is to give market updates for those who want to stay informed. I have made the decision to not encourage travel from the Bay Area, etc. to Tahoe and am therefore not showing property to buyers nor meeting in-person with sellers. I am actively working every day via phone, virtual meetings, email, text, etc.

 

Updated April 4, 2020:

 

Summary since 3/26:

There are more properties exiting the market than there are entering the market; the numbers were equal two weeks prior. The number of cancelled escrows remains about the same with 7-8/week. The dynamic of higher-end listings having more confidence and re-entering the market was different. The two $1m+ listings that fell out of escrow decided to throw in the towel for now. The number of new escrows is similar to the prior 2 weeks with roughly 7 new deals per week. See full details and more info by clicking here.

 

The Details

 

New Listings: I am pretty amazed. There are 20 new listings since my last update on 3/26. Average price $1.2m, high of $8.5m. The $1m+ listings were spread out across our geographic area very evenly. The $8.5m is notable in that it is a non-lakefront home with manicured acreage and multiple pools located across the street from Zuckerberg’s big purchases. I would be very surprised if didn’t buy this as an amenity and for overflow – assuming he has large groups of visitors during non-covid times.

 

Expired Listings: 25 expired listings including two high end West Shore properties. In Tahoe, 100-day listings are very short and rare; 14 of these expireds had under 100 days on market which means they likely cancelled early due to coronavirus.

 

New escrows: There were a total of 7 new escrows since 3/26. Average price $1.1m, high of $2.8m on a beautiful home in Northstar. Interestingly, the Northstar house fell out of escrow on 3/17 due to a spooked buyer. It then re-entered escrow on 4/1. Unlike the new listings, activity was centered in Truckee. The only non-Truckee escrow is an investment property in Kings Beach for $450k.

 

Solds: As we get further from the Shelter In Place order (3/19), the solds are becoming more interesting for two related reasons. These buyers have the financial confidence, cash reserves and very strong desire to acquire that “Tahoe place.” Secondly, since these are typically vacation homes, most of these buyers are ignoring the Shelter In Place order and coming to Tahoe-Truckee to look at homes. Locals are reporting seeing full parking lots at Safeway on Friday afternoon which is very, very frustrating. For this weekend, CHP has issued a ‘No Travel to Tahoe’ warning: click here to watch video.

 

22 closed escrows since 3/26: Average price $923k, 3 sales over $2m. The escrows were spread out across our region but the highest concentration was Tahoe Donner with 4 sales.

 

Are all the escrows falling apart?

Date range 3/26 4/4
Total Failed Escrows 7  
     
Fell out of escrow then back to market as active: Tahoe Basin Truckee
  2 2
  Under $1m Over $1m
  4 0
     
Fell out of escrow then cancelled: Tahoe Basin Truckee
  0 3
  Under $1m Over $1m
  1 2

Dynamics are changing a little. Last update, there were 17 cancellations over the previous 13 days and just 8 cancellations in the last 9 days. Previously the sellers over $1m were showing lots of confidence and re-entering the market after their deals fell apart. This week both escrows over $1m did the opposite and exited the market.

 

Helping Others

Our family is a huge fan of the Kings Beach Boys & Girls Club. We love the “grab and go” dinners and educational services they are providing since the covid outbreak. They’ve served over 400 dinners in the last couple weeks to local families in need. We donated and you can, too, at this link

 

Connect with Alex West

Lakefront February 2020 Update

Last winter was noted as a special one when two adjacent lakefronts sold on one of the West Shore’s finest streets, Sunnyside Lane. Of course, these were the Mark Zuckerberg purchases of $22m and $37m. These two purchases were part of a historical run of transactions over $20m. There have been just 8 sales of this magnitude in the last 15 years – 5 of them occurred between April ’18 and Jan ’19 – wow! See more on that in my Spring 2019 update here.

 

So how is 2020 starting off? Relatively, this winter has been quiet although the only two sales thus far were solid: $7.1m and $7.6m. Current inventory is abysmal with 7 total listings: 6 are under $5.3m and a Flick Point property is being offered for $8.75m; a prime West Shore property with southerly exposure (rare) on 4.5 acres is coming soon for $19.5m.

 

Some interesting points to consider vis a vis the 2019 lakefront market. Yes, the notable Zuckerberg sale happened but then the lakefront market sputtered and came in 50% lower than 2018. Average sold price was higher than it’s been in a decade. But, there were 9 unsuccessful, aka expired, listings totalling $52m in volume. This means that some sellers were overly optimistic about the market and buyers weren’t having it.

 

My Incline Village team (Donovan Group) and I represent the highest-level brand new construction in the entire Lake. These are two adjacent listings at $24,000,000 and $22,000,000 in Crystal Bay. Click here to see 20 Crystal Drive. Click here for 24 Crystal Drive. We have pulled them from MLS until 20 Crystal is completed this Spring. Currently, the highest Tahoe lakefront price is Chase International’s listing. I was involved in the listing presentation and am a Listing Ambassador for Crystal Pointe, $75,000,000

 

Quick Stats

  • 7 active lakefront listings from $2m to a very cool location on Flick Point for $8.75m.
  • 2019 volume and nuber of transactions were both down 50% from 2018. Note that 2018 volumen was almost double 2017.
  • 0 lakefronts in escrow
  • Keep an eye on Homewood – we will see if the Gold Rush pricing attempted by numerous unsuccessful sellers in ’19 will carry over or not.

 

Get in Touch with Alex

Dollar Point February 2020 Update

Dollar Point has just 7 listings on the market currently – 6 are publicly known; 1 is my off-market lakeview listing which is currently in escrow over $4,000,000. This is one of the nicest homes in the entire subdivision. See all Dollar Point listings here.

 

Dollar Point had a huge year in 2018 – sales volume was 2.5 times greater than 2017. 2019 was a disappointment with lowest volume seen in years. Days on market in the neighborhood is typically 1/3 of that for the surrounding area.

 

This is an incredibly highly-desired neighborhood. You and I both know why. I’ve lived in Dollar Point and absolutely love it. So do today’s buyers…
 

Quick Stats:

  • 6 active MLS listings from $749k – 4.75$m
  • 1 closing in 2020: off-market listing on Roundridge for $879,000
  • 2 active escrows: my off-market lakeview listing + a home right next to the pool
  • 2019 Sold Volume was 1/3 that of 2018

Get in Touch with Alex

January 2020 Market Update

Quick 2019 Recap: Due to another large winter and cold/stormy spring, the first half of 2019 was slower than usual but a steady summer and very strong Q4 made up a lot of lost ground. Overall the entire region was almost identical in units sold but down 11% in sales volume year over year. Median prices hit historical highs in almost all micro-markets within our service area except Tahoe City.

 

2019 started with inventory shortages and sellers who planned for the same gains as seen in the hot 2018 market; this resulted in many overpriced properties. So those buyers who were able to make the trek between storms were greeted with a lack of offerings and overly-optimistic seller prices. When combined with geopolitical concerns and constant talk of a “looming recession” many buyers became hesitant to pull the trigger. As you can imagine this took the shimmer off of the vacation-home buying process. However, at the end of the day it came down to sustained, incredible wealth in our primary feeder markets combined with ‘the right timing’ for families who want the Tahoe lifestyle incorporated into their overall well-being.

 

Properties priced in line with the market were in better negotiating positions and they sold well – average sold-to-list price was 96% and marketing times were short for these properties. A useful estimate: we saw multiple offers on roughly 10% of all transactions, mostly in the lower price bands but they did occur over $1,000,000, as well.

 

2019 had been predicted as a leveling-off year for real estate and 2020 is seeing similar forecasts. High employment and job growth combined with low rates will do battle with increasing home prices. Keep in mind, stock market analysts were saying similar things this time last year and the S&P closed 30% higher. There is little evidence showing potential for a major price correction or fundamental weakness in the 2020 real estate market but, of course, time will tell.

 

Spring has become the time of highest market appreciation and so with the experience of 2019 behind us and an election ahead, it will be interesting to see how inventory and pricing interact in this first quarter of 2020.

Get in Touch with Alex

Dollar Point Spring 2019 Update

2018 Dollar Point sales volume was 2.5 times greater than it was in 2017. There were  62% more homes sold. 6 homes sold with ZERO days on market and these were not low end homes. Of these 6, the high was $5m and the average was $2.5m. Days on market in the neighborhood is 1/3 of that for the surrounding area.

 

I sold a home at 151 Roundridge in 3 days. Click here to see the marketing which enhanced the sales process, includes aerial drone video and interior video.

I know of  a complete rebuild potentially coming to market for ~$4m. There could be yet another high-end lakeview home becoming quietly available as well.

“Nothing is for sale and everything is selling” – my phrase for Tahoe in 2018 applies especially well for DP and still works as we charge through 2019.

This is an incredibly highly-desired neighborhood. You and I both know why. I’ve lived in Dollar Point and absolutely love it. So do today’s buyers…
 

Quick Stats:

  • 4 active Dollar Point listings from $999k – $1.4m
  • 1 recent closing: my listing at 151 Roundridge which the sellers and I had in contract in just 3 days
  • 2 active escrows 
  • 2018 Sold Volume was 2.5 times greater than 2017
  • Number of homes sold was up 62% in 2018
  • Connect with Alex West

Kingswood Update January 2020

Kingswood and Kingswood West had a fantastic year in 2019. Sales volume was almost as high as ’16 and ’17 which had the highest sales in the last 15 years including the peak of ’06. 
 
It wasn’t high end sales which drove the Kingswood market – there was only one sale over $1m. There was one sale under $500k. There were 5 sales in the $500k’s; 8 sales in the $600k’s; 10 sales in the $700k’s; and 2 sales in the $900k’s.
 
The Tahoe area from Rubicon to Kings Beach averaged $1.19m sales price. Kingswood averaged $727k last year. The neighborhood is considered to be an upgrade from the Kings Beach grid and a value given nice lot sizes and central location to year-round activities, Tahoe, Northstar, etc.
 
 

Quick Stats and Comparisons:

  • 3 active Kingswood + Kingswood West listings from $650k to $1.27m
  • 2 homes in escrow listed at $563,000 and $639,000
  • 1 sale thus far in 2020 for $800k.
  • Number of sales was very high in 2019: 27 vs 19 sales in 2018.
  • Time on market was also up in 2019: 72 days vs 42 in 2018.
 
My family and I live on Kingswood Drive – I enjoy working in the neighborhood and we love raising our kids here!
 
 

See Kingswood Spring 2019 Update here

Get in Touch with Alex

Kingswood Spring 2019 Update

Kingswood and Kingswood West have had an interesting few market years. 2016 and 2017 saw big volume with $20m each. 2018 had less volume, $15m, but the sales occurred very quickly. More recently, there have been 2 midwinter sales. And right now, there is almost nothing being offered for sale: 2 active listings.
 
A near-record in the neighborhood of $1.825m just sold. This home was previously purchased in 2016 for $1.675m.
 

Quick Stats and Comparisons:

  • 2 active Kingswood + Kingswood West listings from $769k to $1.15m
  • 3 homes in escrow up to $735k.
  • 6 sales already this year including one quite high-end (see next line)
  • Including 2 midwinter sales at $650k $690k. 1 early spring sale at $1.825m.
  • 42 days on market in 2018 vs 94 in 2017.
 
A quick phrase for the Tahoe market: “There’s nothing for sale yet everything is selling!” Inventory is at historic lows. Yet in classic Tahoe fashion, overpriced or less desirable properties are rotting on the vine.
 
See my 2017 Kingswood Recap, click here
 

Get in Touch with Alex

Kingswood 2017 Recap

2017 Recap:

 

Kingswood and Kingswood West have had two fantastic years in a row. 2016 was a record breaker when the neighborhoods collectively closed over $20m in property sales. 2017 followed suit with almost the exact same amount.

While these sales numbers are great, in total Kingswood and Kingswood West have over 700 homes. This means that relatively few sell each year. This is a great opportunity for those considering selling. To give you an example, at one point in 2017 there were just 4 on the market and the same amount were in escrow. See all active listings in Kingswood here.

See my Kingswood mid-year update and 2016 sales info at this link.

Get in Touch with Alex

Dollar Point 2017 Recap

2017 Recap:

Dollar Point had an interesting year in 2017. Volume was down substantially. But the sales happened incredibly fast. Time on market was 2x faster than the rest of Tahoe Basin. Dollar Point homes averaged 35 days on market; the Basin was at 78.

However, there was typically very little offered for sale so options were not wide. There were stretches of time where there were only a dozen homes on the market. That number is usually between 15-20.  See all current listings here.

Higher-end Dollar Point buyers were very selective. Due to low inventory there were 5 homes between $1.5m – $4.3m which were rejected by the market. This was not the case the year before. 2016 saw multiple sales over $1.5m including $2.4m and $3.6m. In contrast, the highest sale in 2017 was $1.7m.

See my 2016 early summer analysis and comparison to 2015 at this link.

2017 Lakefront Market Recap

2017 Recap: The lakefront market had a solid year in 2017. There were 27 sales which accounted for $135m in volume. The lowest sale of the year was $1.54m (off-market) and the high was $29m – see Drum Estate link. Interestingly there were no sales between $7.2m and the Drum sale. As a comparison, in 2016 there were deals at $8m, $11m, $15.8m and $17.5m. 

When comparing overall market performance to 2016 it is critical to include the $22m in sales that occurred off-MLS in 2016. In 2017 there were 2 off-MLS sales including one very notable North Shore property which closed for $7.2m – reach out to me for details.

As you’ll see on the chart below, the number of 2017 sales was well ahead of 2016 (27 vs. 21) and the volume was up about 8%. The incredibly high lake level made lakefront showings especially enticing and there were a good number of buyers who had been waiting a few years before pulling the trigger in 2017. This far in 2018 there has been one sale for $7.5m – it was a listing which had been getting long in the tooth and price was reduced multiple times to eventually realize a sale.

Activity at the highest-end is typically an indicator of good things for the entire lakefront market. The 2017 Drum Estate was the highest sale in our MLS’s records at the time. It was $10m+ more than the highest sale of 2016. It also nudged out a 2015 Chase international sale in Historic Old Brockway for $28.5m. In our MLS there are three listings above $20m currently, the highest of which is a legacy estate with acreage on Sunnyside Lane for $39.5m which had been available as a pocket listing for almost a year.

At the end of summer I wrote about the connection between Tahoe’s lake level and the strong market that existed concurrently. Read that post here.

 

Tahoe is barely below the maximum legal limit. See the USGS lake level chart here: link

5240 West Lake Blvd. 50% share listed and sold by Alex.

A quick recap of 2016: There were 5 fewer sales and 16% less volume than 2015 (please note that I take into account sales which are not reported in MLS – there were 3 in 2015). Half of the sales in 2016 were at homes which had piers. 2016 saw 3 sales over $10m. In 2015 there was only one – the Chase International sale for $28.5m. On the opposite end of the spectrum, 2016 had 2 sales under $2m; 2015 had none. I sold a 50% shared interest in a 7th-generation family cabin in Homewood. There was one bankruptcy sale in each of the last two years. In addition, there were some very interesting transactional incidents that occurred in 2016. I had direct contact with a number of them – feel free to reach out for more information.