Kingswood 2017 Recap

2017 Recap:

 

Kingswood and Kingswood West have had two fantastic years in a row. 2016 was a record breaker when the neighborhoods collectively closed over $20m in property sales. 2017 followed suit with almost the exact same amount.

While these sales numbers are great, in total Kingswood and Kingswood West have over 700 homes. This means that relatively few sell each year. This is a great opportunity for those considering selling. To give you an example, at one point in 2017 there were just 4 on the market and the same amount were in escrow. See all active listings in Kingswood here.

See my Kingswood mid-year update and 2016 sales info at this link.

Get in Touch with Alex

Dollar Point 2017 Recap

2017 Recap:

Dollar Point had an interesting year in 2017. Volume was down substantially. But the sales happened incredibly fast. Time on market was 2x faster than the rest of Tahoe Basin. Dollar Point homes averaged 35 days on market; the Basin was at 78.

However, there was typically very little offered for sale so options were not wide. There were stretches of time where there were only a dozen homes on the market. That number is usually between 15-20.  See all current listings here.

Higher-end Dollar Point buyers were very selective. Due to low inventory there were 5 homes between $1.5m – $4.3m which were rejected by the market. This was not the case the year before. 2016 saw multiple sales over $1.5m including $2.4m and $3.6m. In contrast, the highest sale in 2017 was $1.7m.

See my 2016 early summer analysis and comparison to 2015 at this link.

2017 Lakefront Market Recap

2017 Recap: The lakefront market had a solid year in 2017. There were 27 sales which accounted for $135m in volume. The lowest sale of the year was $1.54m (off-market) and the high was $29m – see Drum Estate link. Interestingly there were no sales between $7.2m and the Drum sale. As a comparison, in 2016 there were deals at $8m, $11m, $15.8m and $17.5m. 

When comparing overall market performance to 2016 it is critical to include the $22m in sales that occurred off-MLS in 2016. In 2017 there were 2 off-MLS sales including one very notable North Shore property which closed for $7.2m – reach out to me for details.

As you’ll see on the chart below, the number of 2017 sales was well ahead of 2016 (27 vs. 21) and the volume was up about 8%. The incredibly high lake level made lakefront showings especially enticing and there were a good number of buyers who had been waiting a few years before pulling the trigger in 2017. This far in 2018 there has been one sale for $7.5m – it was a listing which had been getting long in the tooth and price was reduced multiple times to eventually realize a sale.

Activity at the highest-end is typically an indicator of good things for the entire lakefront market. The 2017 Drum Estate was the highest sale in our MLS’s records at the time. It was $10m+ more than the highest sale of 2016. It also nudged out a 2015 Chase international sale in Historic Old Brockway for $28.5m. In our MLS there are three listings above $20m currently, the highest of which is a legacy estate with acreage on Sunnyside Lane for $39.5m which had been available as a pocket listing for almost a year.

At the end of summer I wrote about the connection between Tahoe’s lake level and the strong market that existed concurrently. Read that post here.

 

Tahoe is barely below the maximum legal limit. See the USGS lake level chart here: link

5240 West Lake Blvd. 50% share listed and sold by Alex.

A quick recap of 2016: There were 5 fewer sales and 16% less volume than 2015 (please note that I take into account sales which are not reported in MLS – there were 3 in 2015). Half of the sales in 2016 were at homes which had piers. 2016 saw 3 sales over $10m. In 2015 there was only one – the Chase International sale for $28.5m. On the opposite end of the spectrum, 2016 had 2 sales under $2m; 2015 had none. I sold a 50% shared interest in a 7th-generation family cabin in Homewood. There was one bankruptcy sale in each of the last two years. In addition, there were some very interesting transactional incidents that occurred in 2016. I had direct contact with a number of them – feel free to reach out for more information.

Early July 2018 Lakefront Market Recap

Early Summer 2018 Tahoe Lakefront Market Recap

We have seen historic sales at the uber high end. In the last 30 days estates at $40,000,000 and $24,000,000 sold before getting a chance to hit the open market. The larger sale saw a 7 day escrow – amazing. There were multiple offers on a $37,000,000 property in Incline Village. There are other high-end listings which will trade this year. Currently, the highest price is Chase International’s listing for which I am a Listing Ambassador: Crystal Pointe, $75,000,000. The highest-price ever for a split lakefront is on the market now – $6.2m.

 

How about 4.5 (!) quick case studies to show you the strength of the North + West Shore lakefront marketplace?

  1. 1590 N Lake Blvd: Bought in 2009 for $2.5m. Attempted to sell for years since but never higher than $2.75m. It had cute furnishings and decor, my colleagues and I even had a team building exercise and cleaned up the “lawn” one spring. The property was dialed. But alas it never sold. Fast forward to 5/13/18: the property receives multiple offers in days and is now happily in escrow. This is a Chase International listing.
  2. 4886 North Lake Blvd: Fairly recently-built North Shore home – very large but no pier – attempted to sell for years but no reward. Fast forward to May 2018 and a buyer approached and it just closed for $3.725m.
  3. 3740 North Lake Blvd: Purchased for $5.2m in 2015 then placed back on market. Property marketed all of 2017 with no luck. Fast forward to May 2018, a local buyer’s agent approached the listing agent and now the property is in escrow. Chase International listing.
  4. 3840 North Lake Blvd: Was on MLS for 854 days. Just as the bank was about to step in and start taking the property back a buyer came in to scoop it up. Just closed for $3.42m. Last MLS list price $3.85m. Chase International listing.

Case Study 4.5 – No address nor price included to respect the privacy of the parties involved: I haven’t yet confirmed this (hence the 1/2 ranking on my Case Study numbering!) but I noticed a change of ownership on  a property which I had been watching. This one had also been listed for an extended time. It was under construction and it never really got momentum in the market. 

Another property at $11,000,000 entered escrow after just a few weeks on market but alas the deal fell apart – reach out if you’d like more info. That property sold 3 years ago for $7.75m and no real improvements were made. It has one of the most impressive boathouses in the entire Basin – it’s basically a barn large enough for two very large boats plus there is an indoor entertaining area.

Quick Stats:

  • 14 active lakefront listings from $1.1m to $40,000,000
  • 6 lakefronts in escrow: 3 on MLS, 3 off MLS
  • Sold Volume up 28%
Yet in the midst of this there are 2 lakefronts under $2m. As mentioned, a West Shore lakefront for $11m just fell out of escrow. So it’s still the kind of market where anything can happen which makes it exciting!
 
The Tahoe Regional Planning Agency finally revealed the draft of its new Shoreline Plan. See more below.
 
This is a great year for the Tahoe lakefront market. Sales are on par with the level of the lake itself – Tahoe is .2 inches from the legal maximum.
 

Dollar Point Early Summer Update

Dollar Point has become majorly attractive for buyers. Days on market is 1/3 of that for the surrounding area. “Nothing is for sale and everything is selling” – my phrase for Tahoe thus far in 2018 applies especially well for DP.

Things are good for Dollar Point sellers – the neighborhood has a median price double the market average and it takes 30% less time to sell a home in Dollar Point. In fact of the 25 sales since 1/1/2107, three had ZERO days on market and 15 sold in less than 15 days – wow.
 
Sales volume is up 400% from the same time last year. Inventory is starting to build but there is still very little for sale. Among the upcoming listings which I know of is 50 Edgecliff Court.
 
This is an incredibly highly-desired neighborhood. You and I both know why. I’ve lived in Dollar Point and absolutely love it. So do today’s buyers…
 

See all Dollar Point listings here

 

A fun note: Lake Tahoe is .2 inches from it’s legal limit!

Early Summer Market Recap

We are seeing historically low inventory. Some neighborhoods have just one or two homes being offered for sale. Currently 28% of our inventory is in escrow – this is very high for our area. Homes under $500k are down to an average of 44 days on market – this is 20% lower than last year. Homes between $700 – $1m average 127 days on market.

We have seen historic sales at the uber high end. Estates at $40,000,000 and $25,000,000 sold before getting a chance to hit the open market. The larger sale saw a 4 day escrow – amazing. There were multiple offers on a $37,000,000 property in Incline Village. There are other high-end listings which will trade this year. Currently, the highest price is Chase International’s listing for which I am a Listing Ambassador: Crystal Pointe, $75,000,000.

Interest Rates: The Fed’s quantitative easing program from 2008 is beginning a scheduled slow down. This makes interest rates increase. Two other factors could contribute to increased rates in the near future: Inflation is looming and future Federal Reserve Bank meetings – some economists are predicting 4 mortgage interest rate hikes in 2017. This will make it more expensive for many buyers to purchase homes as time goes on.

 

Spring 2018 vs. Spring 2017

2018: 93 Single Family Just Listed, Median List Price: $715,000

2017: 126 Single Family Just Listed, Median List Price: $759,000

2018: 52 Single Family Sold, Median Price $945,000

2017: 61 Single Family Sold, Median Price $690,000

37% Increase in Median Sold Price

 

The lake is .2 inches from the legal limit – man, what isn’t flowing around this area now?! We are firing on all cylinders…

 

Quick Dollar Point Update Memorial Day Weekend 2018

Dollar Point has become majorly attractive for buyers. Days on market is 1/3 of that for the surrounding area. “Nothing is for sale and everything is selling” – my phrase for Tahoe thus far in 2018 applies especially well for DP.

Things are good for Dollar Point sellers – the neighborhood has a median price double the market average and it takes 30% less time to sell a home in Dollar Point. In fact of the 25 sales since 1/1/2107, three had ZERO days on market and 15 sold in less than 15 days – wow.
 
Sales volume is up 400% from the same time last year. Inventory is starting to build but there is still very little for sale. Among the upcoming listings which I know of is 50 Edgecliff Court. This pano lakeview home will enter the market at ~$5,000,000 which is almost a record high for Dollar Point non-lakefront.
 
This is an incredibly highly-desired neighborhood. You and I both know why. I’ve lived in Dollar Point and absolutely love it. So do today’s buyers…

Lakefront Market Update, late May 2018

HOW’S THE LAKEFRONT MARKET?
 
This is a great year for the Tahoe lakefront market. Sales are on par with the level of the lake itself – Tahoe is .2 inches from the legal maximum.
 
We are seeing lakefront homes sell which had tried previously but were unsuccessful. I know of 4 now in escrow like this – 3 never hit the open market / MLS.
 
Did you hear about Tahoe’s ultra high end sales? $40,000,000 estate closes in a 7 day deal. $24,000,000 Tahoe City lakefront sells before hitting the market. $37,000,000 Incline Village estate gets multiple offers. The highest price in our entire market is the Chase International listing for $75,000,000, Crystal Pointe – I am a listing ambassador for this property. Highest-price ever for a split lakefront is on the market now – $6.2m.
 
Yet in the midst of this there are 2 lakefronts under $2m. A West Shore lakefront for $11m just fell out of escrow. So it’s still the kind of market where anything can happen which makes it exciting!
 
 
The Tahoe Regional Planning Agency finally revealed the draft of its new Shoreline Plan. Go to this page for more.

Get in Touch with Alex

Lakefront Market Summary – End of Summer 2017

There is an almost magical interaction occurring between Tahoe recreation and the real estate market. This is a combination not to be ignored by those considering selling.

The lake rose over 5 feet this year. This changed the complexion of the shoreline everywhere. Some beaches are completely gone. Others have become extremely private because they are unreachable except by water.  The Truckee River will flow all year. Squaw had a glorious, long, historical season.

Development is back – spec homes and new developments are going in everywhere. I listed and sold out the first brand new lakefront condos in 30 years; see Tahoe Beachfront Residences. Also, a new 100-room, four-star condotel is slated for Tahoe City next year.

Chase International had another successful Lakefront Estates Tour in June. This is the largest and longest-running real estate event at Tahoe. Historically we attribute 2-3 sales per year to the Tour. 

Emerald Bay Sunrise

Lake Level: From January to May last year, the lake went up 1 foot. This year it rose almost 6′ which broke numerous records. at one point the lake level hit the maximum legal limit. You can see that it peaked in July and is now receding.

 

 

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Get in Touch with Alex

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data which created the charts

2016_Year-End STATS Lakefront_TOTALS-2

 

2017 Mid-Year Analysis

2017 Mid-Year Analysis: In looking at the entire Tahoe Sierra MLS market, 2017 is behind by roughly 10%. The difference is exactly equal to the drop in volume at Martis Camp. Sales between $500k – $1m increased 10% since last year.

In the Tahoe Basin, sales are right on par with where they were to this point in 2016. Luxury sales over $1m are up significantly but the majority of that difference happened in one sale.

A Closer Look at the Numbers:

Overall, there were reductions in sales under $500,000 and also in luxury sales over $1,000,000. There is a 28-unit differential in sub-$500k sales creating an $11m drop in volume. Over $4m, there were 9 sales thus far in 2016; this year there have been 4.

Under $500k, there is no geography behind the shortfall – it’s market-wide. Time on market is down 40% so it’s becoming apparent that the difference is due to a lack of inventory as opposed to lack of buyers, eg. a colleague of mine received 4 offers on an entry level home in Kingswood Estates last month.

As mentioned there is a shortfall at the high-end – the two places most affected are Martis Camp and Tahoe lakefronts.

Martis Camp is still the most robust high end market in all of Tahoe-Truckee. Six homes averaging $3.6m have already sold this year. But when compared to last year the number of sales is down 40% and volume is less than half. This is due to 5 sales over $5m including the 3rd highest sale in Martis Camp history occurring in 2016 year to date.

Tahoe lakefronts are a much less definable market especially in winter and spring. For example, the historic Drum Estate was just reassembled and closed for $29.75m – this puts the lakefront numbers ahead of last year. 

One area seeing significant improvement are condominiums over $500k. The number of sales and overall volume are up 30% and 40% respectively.

 

In 2016: The combined Tahoe-Truckee markets outperformed 2015 by 6% in total volume and the number of sales. There was a major jump in activity over $1m which increased 65% – 280 sales up from 187. The number of sales under $500k saw a slight increase – 604 up from 585.

An interesting phenomenon was the percentage growth in sales over $1m which was exactly equal to the reduction in the percentage of sales under $500k. In 2016 homes over $1m accounted for 15% (up 5%) of all sales, while properties under $500k represented 41% (down 5%) of all sales. As one can see, this is a market with rising prices and one in which our buyer pool’s overall wealth is increasing.

Breaking things down and looking solely at the Tahoe Basin sales were slightly down and the average + median prices inched up. Time on market was about the same since 2015 at 101 days. Truckee + Tahoe Donner increased 17%.

The biggest jump in a micro-market year-over-year was at Northstar. The number of sales and volume tripled. Units was 16 vs. 43; volume was $16m vs. $58m. One of the biggest jumps was the uber-high neighborhood, Martis Camp. Volume and sales more than doubled in a year. 22 sales vs. 49 in 2016. Average prices remained about the same and, as one would expect, time on market is down significantly.

Multiple offers occur here but they are not consistent except among the lowest price bands. We have seen a major reduction in listing inventory which plays well for sellers. There have been many instances of buyers hunting down homes which are off-market. Alex has been involved with numerous properties that experienced this. They usually start with buyers’ agents calling Alex knowing that he often has upcoming listings and good seller relationships.

As mentioned above this kind of activity is often neighborhood or niche specific. Generally speaking, and due to the nature of this resort area, Tahoe is in a par market with buyers and sellers on equal footing.

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“We are very happy with the deal, Alex. You made it happen and you are a hero.”

– Neil and Karen B. Sellers of 3266 Edgewater. Closed price $8,199,000. Record breaking lakefront sale in Dollar Point.

 

“We enjoyed working with you and will be in touch when we want to sell more property. Thanks again for getting it sold.”

– Bonnie and Ken. Forty-year Tahoe residents with multiple properties and businesses. Had previously worked with another agent.

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Quick Market Data

For incredibly detailed, geographical market stats please visit this page on our site.

Tahoe Basin, single family and condominium sales

Year Total Volume # Homes Sold Ave. Days on Market Ave. Price Median Price
2016 $351m 408  101  $859k $555k
2015 $371m 434 106 $856k $535k
2014 $396m 346 101 $874k $511k
2013 $420m 307 107 $733k $471k
2012 $367m 465 130 $789k $400k

 

Truckee-Tahoe Donner, single family and condominium sales

Year Total Volume # Homes Sold Days on Market Ave. Price Median Price
2016 $372 614 62 $610k $540k
2015 $312m 543 63 $575k $502k
2014 $282m 489 64 $577k $500k
2013 $314m 582 68 $539k $479k
2012 $257m 575 96 $448k $409k

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