2017 Mid-Year Analysis: In looking at the entire Tahoe Sierra MLS market, 2017 is behind by roughly 10%. The difference is exactly equal to the drop in volume at Martis Camp. Sales between $500k – $1m increased 10% since last year.
In the Tahoe Basin, sales are right on par with where they were to this point in 2016. Luxury sales over $1m are up significantly but the majority of that difference happened in one sale.
A Closer Look at the Numbers:
Overall, there were reductions in sales under $500,000 and also in luxury sales over $1,000,000. There is a 28-unit differential in sub-$500k sales creating an $11m drop in volume. Over $4m, there were 9 sales thus far in 2016; this year there have been 4.
Under $500k, there is no geography behind the shortfall – it’s market-wide. Time on market is down 40% so it’s becoming apparent that the difference is due to a lack of inventory as opposed to lack of buyers, eg. a colleague of mine received 4 offers on an entry level home in Kingswood Estates last month.
As mentioned there is a shortfall at the high-end – the two places most affected are Martis Camp and Tahoe lakefronts.
Martis Camp is still the most robust high end market in all of Tahoe-Truckee. Six homes averaging $3.6m have already sold this year. But when compared to last year the number of sales is down 40% and volume is less than half. This is due to 5 sales over $5m including the 3rd highest sale in Martis Camp history occurring in 2016 year to date.
Tahoe lakefronts are a much less definable market especially in winter and spring. For example, the historic Drum Estate was just reassembled and closed for $29.75m – this puts the lakefront numbers ahead of last year.
One area seeing significant improvement are condominiums over $500k. The number of sales and overall volume are up 30% and 40% respectively.
In 2016: The combined Tahoe-Truckee markets outperformed 2015 by 6% in total volume and the number of sales. There was a major jump in activity over $1m which increased 65% – 280 sales up from 187. The number of sales under $500k saw a slight increase – 604 up from 585.
An interesting phenomenon was the percentage growth in sales over $1m which was exactly equal to the reduction in the percentage of sales under $500k. In 2016 homes over $1m accounted for 15% (up 5%) of all sales, while properties under $500k represented 41% (down 5%) of all sales. As one can see, this is a market with rising prices and one in which our buyer pool’s overall wealth is increasing.
Breaking things down and looking solely at the Tahoe Basin sales were slightly down and the average + median prices inched up. Time on market was about the same since 2015 at 101 days. Truckee + Tahoe Donner increased 17%.
The biggest jump in a micro-market year-over-year was at Northstar. The number of sales and volume tripled. Units was 16 vs. 43; volume was $16m vs. $58m. One of the biggest jumps was the uber-high neighborhood, Martis Camp. Volume and sales more than doubled in a year. 22 sales vs. 49 in 2016. Average prices remained about the same and, as one would expect, time on market is down significantly.
Multiple offers occur here but they are not consistent except among the lowest price bands. We have seen a major reduction in listing inventory which plays well for sellers. There have been many instances of buyers hunting down homes which are off-market. Alex has been involved with numerous properties that experienced this. They usually start with buyers’ agents calling Alex knowing that he often has upcoming listings and good seller relationships.
As mentioned above this kind of activity is often neighborhood or niche specific. Generally speaking, and due to the nature of this resort area, Tahoe is in a par market with buyers and sellers on equal footing.
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“We are very happy with the deal, Alex. You made it happen and you are a hero.”
– Neil and Karen B. Sellers of 3266 Edgewater. Closed price $8,199,000. Record breaking lakefront sale in Dollar Point.
“We enjoyed working with you and will be in touch when we want to sell more property. Thanks again for getting it sold.”
– Bonnie and Ken. Forty-year Tahoe residents with multiple properties and businesses. Had previously worked with another agent.
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Quick Market Data
For incredibly detailed, geographical market stats please visit this page on our site.
Tahoe Basin, single family and condominium sales
| Year | Total Volume | # Homes Sold | Ave. Days on Market | Ave. Price | Median Price |
| 2016 | $351m | 408 | 101 | $859k | $555k |
| 2015 | $371m | 434 | 106 | $856k | $535k |
| 2014 | $396m | 346 | 101 | $874k | $511k |
| 2013 | $420m | 307 | 107 | $733k | $471k |
| 2012 | $367m | 465 | 130 | $789k | $400k |
Truckee-Tahoe Donner, single family and condominium sales
| Year | Total Volume | # Homes Sold | Days on Market | Ave. Price | Median Price |
| 2016 | $372 | 614 | 62 | $610k | $540k |
| 2015 | $312m | 543 | 63 | $575k | $502k |
| 2014 | $282m | 489 | 64 | $577k | $500k |
| 2013 | $314m | 582 | 68 | $539k | $479k |
| 2012 | $257m | 575 | 96 | $448k | $409k |
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