Dollar Point is seeing the effects of coronavirus – in two opposite ways.

An escrow on Mammoth with a list price $935,000 fell apart due to coronavirus fear.

An off-market, record-setting price per foot sale successfully closed for $4,375,000 due to coronavirus fear. How is this possible?

My clients at 324 Edgecliff and I were fortunate to sell their incredible lakeview home for $4,375,000 on 3/24/20. Our escrow started in early January then continued through the outbreak of the coronavirus. The buyers, their agent, the sellers and I worked together (with some understandable hiccups along the way) to see this through to a successful close of escrow. This was the most challenging transaction I’ve ever been a part of and the difficulty wasn’t entirely due to the coronavirus and subsequent worst week on Wall Street in 90 years. Let’s just say that cool heads prevailed and now we have a very happy buyer-family, very happy sellers, and two happy agents. Good stuff.

So how did it sell amidst all that’s happening in the world and SF?

Tahoe is a getaway. It is a respite from busy life in more urban areas. When CA has natural disasters we see an overall drop in interest but a spike in the seriousness of already-attentive buyers. With the way coronavirus is playing out, I see this happening again and especially among the top 5% of our feeder markets. We can already see this from the seller side via my analysis of how sellers are reacting after their escrows fall apart due to coronavirus fears – the wealthier have more confidence in the market. See more detail on this page which I researched and wrote specifically to educate our buyers and sellers on what is happening in Tahoe-Truckee real estate since the statewide school closures on 3/13 and Governor Newsom’s Shelter in Place order on 3/19.

While showings are somewhat challenging, real estate has been ruled an essential service so showings are permitted – we just need to be smart in how we handle them. Again, please see this page for LOTS more info on the market since 3/13.

Important Notes on the Edgecliff Sale: I was able to sell this home off-market per sellers’ request. This was handled in an efficient manner with no interruption of their rental nor personal schedules. The selling price is $1072/foot which the highest price per foot ever recorded for a Dollar Point non-lakefront home. Note: I helped a different client achieve the record for highest Dollar Point MLS sale: $8,199,000 in 2015.

Dollar Point has just 5 active listings on the market currently. Before the statewide school closures on 3/13 there were 8:

1 closed (324 Edgecliff, sold off-market).

1 fell apart (162 Mammoth, listed at $935k) then exited the market.

1 exited the market (185 Observation; note this is a realtors’ home and they removed it from the market). See all Dollar Point listings here.

Dollar Point had a huge year in 2018 – sales volume was 2.5 times greater than 2017.

2019 was a disappointment with the lowest volume seen in years. Days on market in the neighborhood is typically 1/3 of that for the surrounding area.

For my Feb ’20 pre-coronavirus update on Dollar Point click here

We are seeing multiple offers on most properties and even at the highest levels. We are seeing noncontingent offers and competitive bidding on homes that are handled properly.

What does this mean?

It’s easy to get a high valuation of your property. But handling the process needs to be done carefully, thoughtfully and experience matters. Call me to discuss your value and how I help buyers and sellers navigate the wild ride that is Tahoe-Truckee real estate in Summer 2020.

Buyers from our primary feeder markets are deciding to purchase in order to Shelter in Place in Tahoe-Truckee. Some of them are buying as second homes and others are buying to actually move here. I have a theory that many of the latter group will turn around and sell more quickly than most buyers because once things normalize somewhat in a couple years, some of these 2020 buyers will decide full-time mountain life is not for them.

Here are sales from Jan 2019 through May 2020:

(Note that you need to add $18m to the May sales due to an off-market lakefront sale)

Last year was a typical year. From Feb to March sales decreased. Note that in 2020 during the same time, sales actually increased. This is incredible because March 2020 was essentially half a month because coronavirus shock, school closures and Shelter In Place all happened then. This means our market was picking up huge steam then was decimated by coronavirus.

What’s happening now?

Year over year, May volume is down just 11%. This is a 6% improvement in the last 30 days however the actual improvement is much larger and will be seen in June with heavy closing volume. Note: straight MLS data shows a 32% drop in volume year over year but I use off-market sales data to give you a more accurate picture of the market – Welcome to TheBigBlueLake!

MLS-wide since March 13 when things got serious in CA, sales volume is exactly equal but the number of sales is down 29%.

April was down in volume by roughly 40%. This will likely be our hardest-hit month of 2020 since its sales reflects new buyer activity in March.

How am I Pricing Homes Right Now?

We are currently in a high-price bubble which started in mid-May and has made itself apparent over the last week (end of May-early June). I am increasing pricing recommendations for sellers. This will likely be short-lived because inventory will improve and the most voracious buyers will have cleared through the market by purchasing. The only exception is raw land as it still has the most reasons for uncertainty mainly due to supply chains. So my Spring-Summer 2020 sellers are excited because they are still being able to accomplish their goals – I must admit that I am very excited about this, too. Feel free to reach out about your property.

A little background: I have remained bullish on this market since closing a big sale in March and seeing that buyer’s reaction to coronavirus. I had a theory then and it’s proving true: the wealthy will want to come to Tahoe even more now than before. There are a multitude of reasons for this which I’ve described in previous posts (click here). I love talking about this stuff, so feel free to reach out: 530.214.6100.

Check this out:

Sales volume of properties over $2m: since mid-March volume is up 283% over last year – wow! The number of closed sales since mid-March is more than double what it was same time last year. When you think of what’s going on in the world, this is pretty staggering information.

Great for sellers: there are tons of buyers out there.

Great for buyers: there are awesome property options and money is almost free with interest rates under 3%.

Everything is selling and there is an extreme low number of lakefront homes for sale.

My listing at 20 Crystal Drive, $24,850,000 is in escrow.

I valued a lakefront a few years ago for $4.5m and it just sold in hours for $6.5m.

This is a market like none we’ve ever seen before.

In a nutshell, we’ve had a ton of buyers standing at the gates waiting to be let into the marketplace. Some crashed the gate as soon as our Counties entered Phase III for conoravirus, the market got very, very busy with buyer activity at all levels. Tahoe-Truckee is absolutely flooded with visitors and buyers.

The problem right now is a dearth of lakefront properties available for sale. So these buyers who understand that it’s easier to buy than rent are speeding up the timeline they may have previously set for a potential Tahoe purchase. Time is extremely valuable to these people and so they are buying Tahoe lakefronts now. I see this strong demand continuing for months.

Quick Stats

• 5 active lakefront listings from $3.9m to $32m.
• Half of recent offereings were offered last summer – ouch.
• 3 lakefronts in escrow now, $3.2m – $6.5m, average list price $4.4m.
• 2019 sales were down 50% from 2018. 2018 volume was nearly double 2017. See chart below.

At one point half the 2020 active lakefront inventory had been offered in 2019 – it was stale and had been picked over. But then all of these sold since buyers had no other options. Inventory ahs not built back up yet. We need more lakefronts to sell!

Here are the properties I have listed and am marketing right now. You’ll see that I use high-end video and imagery for each. It all starts with the presentation.

20 Crystal Drive, $24,850,000 – in escrow!

Main Website: 20CrystalDriveTahoe.com

20 Crystal Flipbook

24 Crystal Drive, $22,950,000

Main Website: 24CrystalDriveTahoe.com

2222 Silver Fox. $5,400,000

Main Website: NorthstarCastle.com

Largest home to ever be sold at Northstar.

580 Granlibakken Road. $2,950,000

Main Website: Click here

5451′ Ahwahnee-esque log lodge on 3 acres right near downtown Tahoe City.

Kingswood is starting to feel the hot spotlight of this crazy market. A home on Whitehall just received 5+ offers in a few hours on market and is in escrow for almost 10% over asking price of $899,000.

There are only 2 listings in all of Kingswood and Kingswood West. That is crazy low. There are currently 4 escrows. Even with the big break in the spring with no sales, we are at the same level as last year of sales. Any new listings will get gobbled up quickly since we have almost nothing to sell these anxious buyers.

See my May 2020 Kingswood Update here

Dollar Point is absolutely hot with almost nothing for sale. A typical mid-summer listing count would see 15-24 DP properties for sale. Currently there are just 5 active listings and 12 are in escrow.

A couple current escrows perfectly illustrate how nuts the DP market is – reach out to Alex for particulars.

I was able to help a seller achieve a record setting sale on Edgecliff Way this year for $4.375m.

We are seeing multiple offers on most properties and even at the highest levels. We are seeing non-contingent offers and competitive bidding on homes that are handled properly.

What does this mean?

It’s easy to get a high valuation of your property. But handling the process is where there are vast differences in real estate agents. The listing process needs to be done carefully, strategically, and experience matters. If you do it right, you will get non-contingent, high price, quick close offers. If you need more time in your Tahoe-Truckee home, we can work that, as well. Call me to discuss how I help buyers and sellers navigate the wild ride that is Tahoe-Truckee real estate in Summer 2020!

Important Notes on the Edgecliff Sale: I was able to sell this home off-market per sellers’ request. This was handled in an efficient manner with no interruption of their rental nor personal schedules. The selling price is $1072/foot which the highest price per foot ever recorded for a Dollar Point non-lakefront home. Note: I helped a different client achieve the record for highest Dollar Point MLS sale: $8,199,000 in 2015.

Update Late-June 2020:

Earlier this spring a $19.5m Sunnyside property was promoted off-market and sold almost immediately for $18m.  Sale not yet recorded in MLS.

A Rubicon property priced at $9m with beautiful beach and pier entered escrow in 10 days – the lakefront average is 141 days. Note one of the other 2 lakefront sales this year had just 26 days on market.

A sweet spot on Flick Point for $8m is in escrow – was initially offered for $11m. A Dollar Point lakefront which nearly rotted on the vine last year is now in escrow, list price $4.5m.

In a nutshell, last month we had a ton of buyers standing at the gates waiting to be let into the marketplace. Some crashed the gate but now with our Counties in Phase III for conoravirus, the market is very, very busy with buyer activity at all levels.

The problem right now is a dearth of lakefront properties available for sale. So these buyers who understand that it’s easier to buy than rent are speeding up the timeline they may have previously set for a potential Tahoe purchase. Time is extremely valuable to these people and so they are buying Tahoe lakefronts now. I see this strong demand continuing for months.

Quick Stats

• 7 active lakefront listings from $2.4m to $6.25m.
• Half of these were offered last summer – ouch.
• 7 lakefronts in escrow now, $2m – $9m, average list price $4.9m.
• Usually 6-10 lakefronts enter escrow between Mid-May and Mid-June – this is happening now.
• 2019 sales were down 50% from 2018. 2018 volume was nearly double 2017. See chart below.

All three lakefront homes which sold this year were not offered last year. This means half the current inventory is stale and has been picked over. We need more lakefronts to sell!

I send videos to buyers who can’t make it up. Here is a sample: The Lakeside Drive house for $3.5m has a great feel but no garage – casual video walk through link. It is now in escrow.

Here are the properties I have listed and am marketing right now. You’ll see that I use high-end video and imagery for each. It all starts with the presentation.

20 Crystal Drive, $24,850,000

Main Website: 20CrystalDriveTahoe.com

20 Crystal Flipbook

24 Crystal Drive, Coming soon. Price $22,950,000

Main Website: 24CrystalDriveTahoe.com

2222 Silver Fox. $5,950,000

Main Website: NorthstarCastle.com

Largest home to ever be sold at Northstar.

580 Granlibakken Road. $2,950,000

Main Website: Click here

5451′ Ahwahnee-esque log lodge on 3 acres right near downtown Tahoe City.

Get in Touch with Alex

• Name*
  First Last
• Email*
• Are you buying or selling?*
  • Buying
  • Selling
  • Just curious about the market
• Phone
• Anything else you'd like Alex to know?

Our market is down just 17% from last year and it is picking up steam in a big way. Sales of luxury homes are up 230% over last year (detail below). As for the market in general, the June numbers will reflect a major increase in sales and interest in Tahoe-Truckee properties.

We are seeing multiple offers on many properties, a $9m lakefront entered escrow in 10 days, an $18m lakefront sold off-market (still not reported in MLS).

Inquiries for our listings are skyrocketing. One of my sellers dropped price to $3m and we’ve had 4 showings in 10 days as compared to 3 showings in 3 months last year (click here to see a great video of this awesome Tahoe City log lodge on 3 acres).

Buyers from our primary feeder markets are deciding to purchase in order to Shelter in Place in Tahoe-Truckee. Some of them are buying as second homes and others are buying to actually move here. I have a theory that many of the latter group will turn around and sell more quickly than most buyers because once things normalize somewhat in a couple years, some of these 2020 buyers will decide full-time mountain life is not for them.

Here are sales from Jan 2019 through April 2020:

Last year was a typical year. From Feb to March sales decreased. Note that in 2020 sales actually increased. This is incredible because March 2020 was essentially half a month since coronavirus shock, school closures and Shelter In Place all happened then. This means our market was picking up huge steam then was decimated by coronavirus.

What’s happening now?

Year over year, April was down in volume by roughly 40%. This will likely be our hardest-hit month of 2020 since its sales reflects new buyer activity in March.

May year over year: MLS data shows our market down 57% BUT you come to thebigbluelake.com to get a more accurate picture of the market! Factoring in the $18m off-market sale May year over year is down just 30%.

How am I Pricing Homes Right Now?

I am recommending strong pricing for all sellers. For those sellers who inquired any time in 2019, I am continuing to recommend similar or higher pricing in 2020. The only exception is raw land as it has the most reasons for uncertainty. So my Spring-Summer 2020 sellers are excited because they are still being able to accomplish their goals – I must admit that I am very excited about this, too.

I have remained bullish on this market since closing a big sale in March and seeing that buyer’s reaction to coronavirus. I had a theory then and it’s proving true: the wealthy will want to come to Tahoe even more now than before. There are a multitude of reasons for this which I’ve described in previous posts (click here). I love talking about this stuff, so feel free to reach out: 530.214.6100.

Check this out:

Sales volume of properties over $2m: since mid-March volume is up 230% over last year – wow! The number of closed sales since mid-March is almost double what it was same time last year. When you think of what’s going on in the world, this is pretty staggering information.

Great for sellers: there are tons of buyers out there.

Great for buyers: there are awesome property options and money is almost free with interest rates under 3%.

Kingswood has seen the effects of coronavirus. An escrow recently fell out since the 3/13 statewide school closure date, a turning point for our market. However, just like we are seeing in other areas there can be the opposite result from the covid effect – a home in the neighborhood at $800,000 entered escrow on 3/16.

While showings are somewhat challenging, real estate has been ruled an essential service so showings are permitted – we just need to be smart in how we handle them. Please see this page for LOTS more info on the Tahoe-Truckee market since 3/13.

Kingswood January 2020 Update

A $19.5m Sunnyside property was promoted off-market and sold almost immediately for $18m.  Sale not yet recorded in MLS.

A Rubicon property priced at $9m with beautiful beach and pier entered escrow in 10 days – the lakefront average is 141 days. Note one of the other 2 lakefront sales this year had just 26 days on market.

A sweet spot on Flick Point for $8m just entered escrow – was initially offered for $11m.

In a nutshell, we have a ton of buyers standing at the gates waiting to be let into the marketplace. Some have crashed the gate and gotten up here to buy! 

Things are very interesting. The problem right now is a dearth of lakefront properties available for sale. So these buyers who understand that it’s easier to buy than rent are speeding up the timeline they may have previously set for a potential Tahoe purchase. Time is extremely valuable to these people and so they are buying Tahoe lakefronts now. I see this strong demand continuing for months.

Quick Stats

• 11 active lakefront listings from $2m to $6.25m.
• Half of these were offered last summer – ouch.
• 3 lakefronts in escrow now, $3.5m, $8m and $9m
• Usually 6-10 lakefronts enter escrow between Mid-May and Mid-June – this is primetime.
• 2019 sales were down 50% from 2018. 2018 volume was nearly double 2017. See chart below.

All three lakefront homes which sold this year were not offered last year. This means half the current inventory is stale and has been picked over. We need more lakefronts to sell!

I send videos to buyers who can’t make it up. Here is a sample: The Lakeside Drive house for $3.5m has a great feel but no garage – casual video walk through link.

Here are the properties I have listed and am marketing right now. You’ll see that I use high-end video and imagery for each. It all starts with the presentation.

20 Crystal Drive, $24,850,000

Main Website: 20CrystalDriveTahoe.com

20 Crystal Flipbook

24 Crystal Drive, Coming soon. Price also >$22,950,000

Main Website: 24CrystalDriveTahoe.com

2222 Silver Fox. $5,950,000

Main Website: NorthstarCastle.com

Largest home to ever be sold at Northstar.

580 Granlibakken Road. $2,950,000

Main Website: Click here

5451′ Ahwahnee-esque log lodge on 3 acres right near downtown Tahoe City.

Get in Touch with Alex

• Name*
  First Last
• Email*
• Are you buying or selling?*
  • Buying
  • Selling
  • Just curious about the market
• Phone
• Anything else you'd like Alex to know?

April 17, 2020: How’s the Lakefront Market?

Relatively, this winter had been quiet although there were two solid sales: $7.1m and $7.6m. There was a very low price on a Meeks Bay lakefront which sold in 5 days: click here to see MLS listing;  Click here to see my casual video walk through. This property entered escrow on 3/13 which was the Friday that CA announced statewide school closures. As you can see on my Tahoe-Truckee Market Update page, this date was a turning point in our market. I have a ton of info on the market since then here: click here.

Current inventory is very low and is getting quite long in the tooth – average time on market for these active listings is 191 days – ouch. I must say, however, some are quite cool. The Lakeside Drive house for $3.5m is has a great feel but no garage – here is my casual video walk through of it.

6 total lakefront listings: 5 are under $5.3m and a Flick Point property is being offered for $8.75m; a prime West Shore property with southerly exposure (rare) on 4.5 acres entered escrow before hitting the open market: list price $19.5m.

Where are we headed?

We are likely headed to the standstill that is being witnessed in The Bay. But our market lags behind SF’s and so too, it seems, do our social practices. Our school closures and SIP came a week after SF’s and so maybe our real estate market still has some life in it right now for the same reasons.

Maybe this is wishful thinking but in the near term I see some activity at the higher price bands. High-end buyers have levels of financial sophistication, diversity, reserves – and patience – to endure a drawn out Covid situation and their desire for a “Tahoe place” gets strengthened in these times. While showings are somewhat challenging, real estate has been ruled an essential service so showings are permitted – we just need to be smart in how we handle them. Again, please see this page for LOTS more info on the market since 3/13.

High-end examples: These two properties at $4m and $6m were in escrow before coronovirus hit CA. They removed all contingencies on 3/20 and 3/23 which are two of the worst stock market dates on record: click here. Another example is my $4,375,000 non-lakefrone sale mentioned above. Note: Buyers are needed to drive markets so here is some info on on high-net worth individuals’ and their asset allocation.

Who are the high-end buyers?

The average age for a Tahoe lakefront buyer is in the mid-50’s. This is the very beginning of Gen X. Based on a 2018 high-net worth study by U.S. Trust, the private banking arm of BofA, Gen X holds about 54% of their wealth in stocks, 16% in bonds, 16% in cash, the rest in alternatives. My financial advisor estimates that he is seeing a 5-10% reduction in portfolios of his higher-net worth clients due to March ‘20 events. Obviously our market activity is significantly diminished but there will be some high net-worth families who still decide to drop in on a nice Tahoe home if there are listings which they are able see.

Where is the fallout?

Stay tuned. It’s too early to say for Tahoe real estate. This article in Curbed (click here) says that things are all but stopping in SF. Since our market follows the City’s, we are likely headed in the same direction. Keep an eye on this page which I will update moving forward.

Interesting Notes on 2019

Last winter was noted as a special one when two adjacent lakefronts sold on one of the West Shore’s finest streets, Sunnyside Lane. Of course, these were the Mark Zuckerberg purchases of $22m and $37m. These two purchases were part of a historical run of transactions over $20m. There have been just 8 sales of this magnitude in the last 15 years – 5 of them occurred between April ’18 and Jan ’19 – wow! See more on that in my Spring 2019 update here.

Some interesting points to consider vis a vis the 2019 lakefront market. Yes, the notable Zuckerberg sale happened but then the lakefront market sputtered and came in 50% lower than 2018. Average sold price was higher than it’s been in a decade. But, there were 9 unsuccessful, aka expired, listings totalling $52m in volume. This means that some sellers were overly optimistic about the market and buyers weren’t having it.

My Incline Village team (Donovan Group) and I represent the highest-level brand new construction in the entire Lake. These are two adjacent listings at $24,000,000 and $22,000,000 in Crystal Bay. Click here to see 20 Crystal Drive. Click here for 24 Crystal Drive. We have pulled them from MLS until 20 Crystal is completed this Spring. Currently, the highest Tahoe lakefront price is Chase International’s listing. I was involved in the listing presentation and am a Listing Ambassador for Crystal Pointe, $75,000,000. 

2017: 2*Off-MLS sales:

2016: 3

2015 and 2013: 1

Lake Level

I love keeping an eye on the Lake level. Our seasonal real estate sales activity typically mirrors that of the lake level.

The way to read this chart is to add the ‘gage height’ to elevation 6220′. The legal limit for Tahoe is 6229′. 

See all lakefronts for sale here

See Current TRPA Shoreline Plan Draft here

PDF to TRPA Shoreline Plan Executive Summary May 2018

See TRPA Shoreline Map here: This shows all Lakefront parcels and piers around the entire Lake

See Current Lake Tahoe Planning Benchmarks here

Click here for last Spring’s Lakefront Market Update