May 2020 Market Update

Our market is down just 17% from last year and it is picking up steam in a big way. Sales of luxury homes are up 230% over last year (detail below). As for the market in general, the June numbers will reflect a major increase in sales and interest in Tahoe-Truckee properties.


We are seeing multiple offers on many properties, a $9m lakefront entered escrow in 10 days, an $18m lakefront sold off-market (still not reported in MLS).


Inquiries for our listings are skyrocketing. One of my sellers dropped price to $3m and we’ve had 4 showings in 10 days as compared to 3 showings in 3 months last year (click here to see a great video of this awesome Tahoe City log lodge on 3 acres).


Buyers from our primary feeder markets are deciding to purchase in order to Shelter in Place in Tahoe-Truckee. Some of them are buying as second homes and others are buying to actually move here. I have a theory that many of the latter group will turn around and sell more quickly than most buyers because once things normalize somewhat in a couple years, some of these 2020 buyers will decide full-time mountain life is not for them.


Here are sales from Jan 2019 through April 2020:


Last year was a typical year. From Feb to March sales decreased. Note that in 2020 sales actually increased. This is incredible because March 2020 was essentially half a month since coronavirus shock, school closures and Shelter In Place all happened then. This means our market was picking up huge steam then was decimated by coronavirus.


What’s happening now?


Year over year, April was down in volume by roughly 40%. This will likely be our hardest-hit month of 2020 since its sales reflects new buyer activity in March.


May year over year: MLS data shows our market down 57% BUT you come to to get a more accurate picture of the market! Factoring in the $18m off-market sale May year over year is down just 30%.


How am I Pricing Homes Right Now?


I am recommending strong pricing for all sellers. For those sellers who inquired any time in 2019, I am continuing to recommend similar or higher pricing in 2020. The only exception is raw land as it has the most reasons for uncertainty. So my Spring-Summer 2020 sellers are excited because they are still being able to accomplish their goals – I must admit that I am very excited about this, too.


I have remained bullish on this market since closing a big sale in March and seeing that buyer’s reaction to coronavirus. I had a theory then and it’s proving true: the wealthy will want to come to Tahoe even more now than before. There are a multitude of reasons for this which I’ve described in previous posts (click here). I love talking about this stuff, so feel free to reach out: 530.214.6100.


Check this out:


Sales volume of properties over $2m: since mid-March volume is up 230% over last year – wow! The number of closed sales since mid-March is almost double what it was same time last year. When you think of what’s going on in the world, this is pretty staggering information.


Great for sellers: there are tons of buyers out there.


Great for buyers: there are awesome property options and money is almost free with interest rates under 3%.

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